Myanmar has been plunged into chaos since a military coup in February 2021. The coup ignited an armed resistance that has now joined forces with ethnic minority rebel groups, adding layers to an already complex conflict. Over the past six months, the junta has faced a series of battlefield defeats and, coupled with a hemorrhaging economy, is now grappling with its biggest challenge since seizing power.
As the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) asserts, the junta has lost control of not only half of its 5,280 military positions, including outposts, bases, and headquarters, but also 60 percent of the territory it once held in ethnic minority areas. Within the next six months, reliable intelligence suggests that the military could lose control over all major borderlands with Bangladesh, China, India, and Thailand.
These developments have profound implications for regional security, Malaysia’s national interests, and the credibility of ASEAN. As Malaysia prepares to assume the ASEAN Chairmanship in 2025, it is imperative that we adopt a pragmatic and decisive approach to the rapidly changing situation in Myanmar
A Call for Pragmatic Adaptation
Malaysia must adapt swiftly to the unfolding realities on the ground in Myanmar. The formation of an interagency task force is a critical first step. This task force would ensure timely responses to the ever-changing situation, cutting through bureaucratic inertia and overreliance on conventional mechanisms that may impede our pace for holistic interventions. It should be supported by a pool of Myanmar experts, covering multilayered issues ranging from bilateral and multilateral relations to traditional and non-traditional challenges.
A robust, multidimensional platform is urgently needed to navigate Myanmar’s evolving challenges, one that considers not only security concerns but also human security and developmental aspects. Malaysia must lead this effort, ensuring that our responses are as comprehensive as they are swift.
Forging a Path Beyond the ASEAN 5-Point Consensus
Malaysia and ASEAN must begin to chart a clearer path for a post-conflict Myanmar, one that goes beyond the existing ASEAN 5-Point Consensus. Under the spirit of collective ASEAN, Malaysia’s role in 2025 should be to bring all stakeholders together to discuss comprehensive approaches to humanitarian assistance, economic development, operationalizing democratic federalism, and power-sharing. Malaysia should provide a neutral, secure, and inclusive environment where diverse stakeholders can collaborate effectively, laying the groundwork for a stable and democratic Myanmar.
ASEAN’s Role and the International Community
ASEAN and the international community must stand ready to assist Myanmar in various capacities, with Malaysia at the helm. ASEAN must now adopt a unified stance on Myanmar’s civil strife and spearhead a strategy for recalibration. The world is watching, and ASEAN’s credibility is at stake. At present, what is being portrayed is more about divisions than unity, and this must change. Malaysia must ensure that ASEAN is never perceived as devoid of solutions to Myanmar’s deepening crisis.
The Fractured Future of Myanmar
Looking ahead, Myanmar’s future appears fractured, with no singular authority to steer its course. Such a splintered state is likely to perpetuate more chaos, transcending national borders and posing a significant challenge to regional stability. The world anticipates a more significant role for ASEAN in light of these current and impending challenges.
The Imperative of Action
Today, as we reflect on the situation in Myanmar, words remain important, but our actions are indispensable. It is our hope that discussions and initiatives surrounding Myanmar will lead to the formation of a Myanmar study group, which will eventually assist Malaysia’s preparation for the ASEAN Chairmanship in 2025. This is an opportunity for us to demonstrate that in the face of adversity, ASEAN stands strong.
Malaysia must step forward with the resolve to make a difference, to be the leader this moment demands. The path ahead is fraught with challenges, but with decisive and coordinated action, Malaysia and ASEAN can navigate the complexities of Myanmar’s crisis and emerge stronger.
As Malaysia looks towards its role in ASEAN’s 2025 Chairmanship, it is clear that the situation in Myanmar will be a defining issue. The time for action is now. Malaysia, as a key player in ASEAN, must lead the charge in ensuring that ASEAN stands united and effective in addressing the crisis in Myanmar. The world is watching, and the stakes could not be higher.
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