As of March 30th 2020, Malaysia recorded 156 new Covid-19 cases, bringing the total number to 2,626. The good news is that 91 people have recovered in the span of 24 hours, with the total recoveries at 479 cases (18.2 % of total cases).
However, 3 new Covid-19 related fatalities were recorded, bringing the death toll in Malaysia to 37 (1.4% of the total cases).
Recently, Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) published ‘The Economic Impacts of COVID-19‘.
MIER, through their Health Economics Division project that the pandemic in Malaysia will peak at Day 26, 12th of April 2020, with 8,957 cumulative cases (5,070 active cases).
In addition, the report revealed several interesting findings through the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Under the Worst-case scenario, in which there is a reduction in industrial outputs and trade by 70% during MCO in quarter 1 and 2 and outputs and trade rebound by 96% and 98% to baseline level in quarter 3 and 4, respectively, the macroeconomic impacts in 2020 include:
- Real GDP contracted by 6.9% relative to baseline.
- Projected real GDP growth (YoY) = -2.9%.
- Value of real GDP losses (relative to projected 2020 baseline) = RM102 billion.
- Job losses; 2.4 million (out of 16 million employed labor in 2019)
- Household income losses = RM95 billion (-12% relative to projected baseline in 2020).
- Private consumption fell by 11%, due to income losses.
- Overall consumer prices fell by 4.4%.
On the other hand, under the Best Case Scenario (reduction in industrial outputs and trade by 40% during MCO in quarter 1 and 2; outputs and trade fully rebound to baseline level in quarter 3 and increases by 2% in quarter 4), the economic projection is as follows:
- Real GDP contracted by 2.61% relative to baseline.
- Projected real GDP growth (YoY) = 1.57%.
- Value of real GDP losses (relative to projected 2020 baseline) = RM38 billion (RM73 billion in nominal term).
- Job losses; 951,000 (out of 16 million employed labor in 2019, presumably mainly non-salaried jobs)
- Household income losses = RM41 billion (-5.2% relative to projected baseline in 2020).
- Private consumption fell by 4.9%, due to income losses.
- Overall consumer prices fell by 2.05%.
**For MIER Press Statement, refer to the attachment below:
